Breakthrough in production and rapid expansion of production capacity
Hydrogenated petroleum resin is a kind of light color or colorless high-end petroleum resin, which is based on petroleum resin and hydrogenation of unsaturated bond by catalytic hydrogenation. In addition to its light color and no special smell, it also improves its weather resistance, stability and compatibility compared with non hydrogenated petroleum resin. According to different raw materials and processes, hydrogenated petroleum resin can be generally divided into C5 hydrogenated petroleum resin, hot poly C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin, cold poly C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin and DCPD hydrogenated resin.
The development, research and production of hydrogenated petroleum resin products in China started relatively late. Before 2015, only Yangzi Eastman and Lanzhou Petrochemical had the capacity to produce C5 hydrogenated petroleum resin, with a total capacity of only 32000 tons. Domestic demand mainly depended on imports. After 2015, the domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin industry developed rapidly, and DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin plants were successively built in Luhua, Jinhai Chenguang, Ruisen, Puyang and Kairi, Shandong Province; Dalian University of technology successfully developed C9 petroleum resin hydrogenation technology, and successfully realized industrial application in Qiming, Hebei Province and Henghua, Tianli, Xinjiang Province; first, C5 hydrogenated petroleum resin plant was built in 2015 by Henghe materials, Later, the largest C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin plant in China was built in 2018, with a total capacity of 80000 tons, becoming the world's third largest hydrogenated petroleum resin manufacturer after ExxonMobil and Eastman. By the end of 2018, the total capacity of domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin has reached 213000 tons, and the total output has reached 136000 tons. As the 55000 ton unit of Henghe material was put into production in late September, the actual utilization rate of domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin capacity in 2018 is about 80%.
At present, the domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin industry has a high concentration. See Table 1 for the production situation of 9 major enterprises in 2018. In addition to the nine production enterprises listed in the table, Taixing Tianma and Shandong Qilong have also built C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin units, but due to production process and other problems, they are not included in the production enterprises.
DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin production is the most mature
Among all kinds of hydrogenated petroleum resins in China, DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin is the most mature product. In 2018, the supply of DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin occupies a leading position, with an output of 62500 tons, accounting for 46% of the total supply of domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin, which is the product type with the highest market share. At the same time, due to the large supply of DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin products, the market price is lower than C5 hydrogenated petroleum resin and C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin. In 2018, the production of C5 hydrogenated petroleum resin and C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin was 48500 tons and 25000 tons respectively, accounting for 36% and 18% of the market respectively. It is predicted that the market share of DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin will decrease to a certain extent and the market share of C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin will increase significantly after the capacity of C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin of Henghe material is released in 2019.
In terms of production capacity, after the production of 55000 tons of C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin unit of Henghe material in September 2018, the domestic production capacity of C5 hydrogenated petroleum resin, C5, C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin and DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin accounted for 27%, 40% and 33% respectively. In the early stage, due to the deep color, impurities and relatively large molecular weight of C9 petroleum resin, it was easy to produce gel in the polymerization process. As raw materials, the catalyst and reaction device of hydrogenation process were more demanding. Before the breakthrough of Ganges RIver materials, only 15 thousand tons of capacity of Hebei Qiming were produced in China.
In terms of production technology, domestic enterprises generally choose cold poly (petroleum resin) as the raw material for hydrogenation. At present, only one enterprise of Henghe materials has the ability to use hot poly (C9) petroleum resin as the raw material to produce hydrogenated petroleum resin. In the polymerization section, the polymerization catalyst is generally AlCl3 or BF3. In the hydrogenation section, the domestic processes are mainly divided into loop reactor, fixed bed and reactor. Because of the existence of double bonds or aromatics in the structure of petroleum resin, and the presence of halides, hydrogen sulfide and gum, hydrogenation is difficult, so the activity and selectivity of catalyst have a crucial impact on the product performance. PD is generally selected as catalyst for C5 hydrogenated petroleum resin, while Ni is selected for C9 hydrogenated petroleum resin and DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin.
Capacity expansion is more radical, and supply pressure will be greatly increased
As the price is higher than that of ordinary petroleum resin, at present, the domestic production of hydrogenated petroleum resin is mainly used in the field of adhesives (hot-melt adhesive, pressure-sensitive adhesive), and a small amount is used in road sign paint and non-woven fabric (Figure 1). In the next five years, it is expected that hot melt adhesive, as the main application field of hydrogenated petroleum resin, will maintain a growth rate of 5% - 6%.
According to the new and proposed plans of hydrogenated petroleum resin announced by various enterprises at present, the capacity of domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin will maintain a more radical expansion in the next 1-2 years. By 2021, it is estimated that the capacity of domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin will be increased by 425000 tons (Table 2), which is close to twice of the existing capacity. If all new and proposed projects are successfully completed and put into operation, domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin will enter the stage of excess capacity.
In the new and proposed projects, about 50% of the production capacity is expanded by the existing hydrogenated petroleum resin production enterprises. Compared with the newly entered enterprises, such as Taixing Tianma, Shandong Qilong, Zhejiang Derong, etc., the production process is more mature, with relatively stable downstream customers, and the possibility of completion and operation is relatively high. For the newly entered enterprises, in view of the radical expansion of domestic production capacity in the next 1-2 years The judgment on the market may be pessimistic, and there is great uncertainty about whether the newly built hydrogenated petroleum resin plant can be built and put into operation smoothly.
To sum up, in the past five years, with the breakthrough of domestic enterprises in the production of hydrogenated petroleum resin, the production capacity of domestic hydrogenated petroleum resin has increased rapidly. At present, the DCPD hydrogenated petroleum resin with the highest market share has appeared the phenomenon of price inversion. In the future, the capacity of hydrogenated resin will maintain a more radical expansion, but the growth rate of downstream consumption is limited, and the problem of excess capacity will become more and more prominent. Therefore, it will be an important development direction for the production enterprises of hydrogenated petroleum resin in the future to actively expand the downstream consumption field of hydrogenated petroleum resin and actively explore the overseas market.