On April 28, international oil prices fell again. As of 16:00, U.S. crude oil futures fell to $10.43/barrel; Brent crude oil futures are now at $22.33/barrel.
According to foreign media reports, Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in Saudi Arabia, has planned to cut production before the target date of May 1, and will achieve the production target of 8.5 million barrels / day ahead of schedule. In addition, Kuwait, Algeria and Nigeria have all indicated plans to cut production by the start date of May 1. Iraqi oil minister Karban said oil prices will rise once the agreement is implemented. Cabain expects oil prices to rise to $50 a barrel by the end of the year. He expects Iraq's oil revenues to fall by 50% in 2020 from a year earlier. The chemical industry continues to fluctuate the price of some raw materials. Recently, the crude oil at the source of the petrochemical industry chain continues to fluctuate, and the chemical industry chain also appears to fluctuate. This early reduction of production, rather than enhancing the market confidence, more directly, is to increase the cost of some chemicals, which naturally affects the price of chemical raw materials. The crude oil industry chain is very long and covers a wide range. It can not only produce aromatics, benzene, propylene, ethylene and other intermediate products, but also indirectly promote the follow-up products of butadiene, ethylene oxide, propylene alcohol, isopropanol, polypropylene, ethylbenzene and p-xylene industry chain. It is closely related to people in liquefied gas, medicine, plastic glass, clothing, textile, film coating, etc The industry is closely related, so it is widely concerned by the public.
(the above data is from the general data of paint purchasing. If there is any discrepancy, please refer to the latest data!) According to the recent price fluctuation of chemical raw materials, the top three raw materials were acetone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). Analysts attribute the rise of some raw materials to the rise of raw materials market and the increase of downstream demand. Market expectations for OPEC + expansion and production reduction are rising, and tensions between the United States and Iran are once again tense, which all promote the recovery of market confidence and the recovery of crude oil exploration. On April 27, the price of Wanhua chemical propylene oxide in Shandong increased by 200 yuan / ton to 8100 yuan / ton. On April 27, Shandong Yankuang Guohong methanol's external quotation was increased by 20 yuan / ton to 1580 yuan / ton ex warehouse spot exchange, the operation of its 640000 ton / year methanol plant was temporarily stable, and that of Lunan Chemical Industry was temporarily stable. On April 27, the external quotation of methanol of Shandong Yankuang international Coking Co., Ltd. was increased by 20 yuan / ton to 1580 yuan / ton, and the operation of 250000 ton / year coke oven gas methanol plant was temporarily stable. Sinopec's butadiene price is generally increased by 500 yuan / ton, and 4000 yuan / ton will be implemented from April 26, including South China sales company (Maoming Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical), central China sales company (Wuhan), East China sales company (Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Shanghai Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical). The mainstream price of glycol in South China market is 3275 yuan / ton (short-distance delivery price), which is 50 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day , up 1.55%. The mainstream price of glycol market in East China is 3230 yuan / ton (the price of large single can), up 15 yuan / ton or 0.47% compared with the previous trading day. It's hard to know that the oil price is still low and wide in the near future due to the limited boosting effect. Although there are some favorable releases on the supply side in the short term, considering the continuous impact of the epidemic, the problem on the demand side is the most critical factor restricting the oil price at present. In particular, the global crude oil inventory has risen sharply, and the pressure on storage capacity will only become more and more serious. The growth of commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States is much larger than expected. It is also predicted that the global oil storage space may be exhausted in the next few weeks, and the operating rate of refineries may fall again, which will also force oil producing countries to further reduce production, and crude oil may be in epidemic in the future Seek rebalancing in the low demand state caused by emotion.
In other words, the price of crude oil is likely to rise slowly as production cuts come into force. On the one hand, during the epidemic, various countries have taken various measures to "rescue the market", such as interest rate reduction and standard reduction. The Federal Reserve has launched unconventional monetary policy three times in a month. After the implementation of "zero interest rate", it announced that it will implement unlimited open quantitative easing (QE). The world has also launched a new round of "easing" measures, with large-scale "water release" in Europe and the United States, stimulating consumption and boosting the global economy. In this situation, prices will be adjusted and crude oil prices will not stay low for a long time. On the other hand, the world bank had previously lowered its crude oil price forecast to $35 / barrel in 2020, and expected the crude oil price to rebound to $42 / barrel in 2021. Affected by the global epidemic and International Geopolitics, the price of crude oil changes rapidly, and the trend is difficult to grasp. Therefore, the supply side is unpredictable, and the boosting effect for chemicals is very limited. In addition, it is worth noting that the bulk of general chemicals such as terpenes and triphenyls prefer the cost pricing mechanism, so the anchor of pricing is often the price of crude oil. Although the price of fine and functional chemicals is also related to the trend of oil price, it is still greatly affected by supply and demand in the long term. If the downstream demand side has been sluggish, everything will be in the air 。
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