[introduction]: in the first quarter, the overall price of polyurethane resin raw materials was weak, and the early return to work was delayed, and the demand performance was low. After returning to work in March, the terminal demand was hit again, and the upstream and downstream inventory of the industrial chain accumulated. By the end of March, the average decline of the raw material end was 11.9%. 1. In the first quarter, polyurethane resin raw materials were in the decline channel
In the first quarter, the internal and external economic environment was negative as a whole, the export of downstream automobile, furniture, leather, textile and other fields were limited, and the overall price of polyurethane industry chain products fell, among which the traditional peak season of polyurethane resin industry chain plate was no longer, and the price continued to decline unilaterally. Among the raw material prices, adipic acid is the biggest one, which is greatly affected by the downward cost; DMF is the second one, which is dominated by the supply-demand relationship; pure MDI and BDO plant end reduce production and burden, which is encouraged to support, with a moderate decline.
Adipic acid: in the first quarter, the market price of adipic acid went down unilaterally, and by March, the decline was significantly accelerated. In addition to the low load of Pu slurry and TPU on the demand side, after the crude oil price war, the price of pure benzene cut back also played a key role. The export market was obviously blocked in the middle and late March, and the domestic and foreign trade was difficult. In the first quarter, the market price of adipic acid fell from 8050 yuan / ton to 6200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decline of 23%. The average price in the first quarter was 7698.79 yuan / ton, down 2.39% on a month on month basis, down 9.2% on a year-on-year basis. Pure MDI: due to the slow resumption of work in the downstream market and the negative impact of the external economic environment, domestic trade and foreign trade demand transmission is not smooth under the superimposition of public health events. Since the first quarter of 2020, the total demand of pure MDI is limited. Although the reduction of the supply side's inventory during the period, the weak atmosphere in the field has been limited. The supplier's negotiation and shipment continue, and the focus is slowly moving down. The price of pure MDI is slow from 15750 yuan / ton It fell to 14500 yuan / ton at the end of March, with a cumulative decline of 7.9%. The average price in the first quarter was 15411.02 yuan / ton, down 9.07% on a month on month basis, and down 28.03% on a year-on-year basis.
DMF: different from the upward trend of shocks in the first quarter of last year, in 2020, under the guidance of multiple negative external environment and weak supply and demand fundamentals, DMF showed a downward trend of shocks in the first quarter. The delivery price of Jiangsu market dropped from 5400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 4700 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decline of 12.96%. The average price in the first quarter was 5209.32 yuan / ton, down 0.48% on a month on month basis, up 8.82% on a year-on-year basis.
BDO: after the Spring Festival, the supply-demand relationship of BDO market has quietly changed. Upstream inventory has accumulated. The PBT commencement of downstream main industry has gradually declined from over 72% to about 40%, and the profit from negotiation has increased. Although the production at the plant end has been reduced, the social inventory has always been at a high level. After the Spring Festival, the market price fell slowly, from 9600 yuan / ton to 9250 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decline of 3.6%. The average price in the first quarter was 9551.21 yuan / ton, 3.73% higher than the previous quarter, and 5.85% higher than the first quarter of last year.
2. In the first quarter, the profit margin of polyurethane resin raw materials showed a state of travel alienation
Due to the large decline of main upstream raw materials, adipic acid, pure MDI, DMF and BDO were all at a positive profit level in the first quarter.
Adipic acid: since 2019, the domestic adipic acid industry has entered the era of meager profit. Without the sharp rise and fall of the market, the industry is in a slightly surplus state. The downstream also judges the market according to the price difference of acid benzene. In the first quarter, the market surplus pressure is still large, but the settlement under the cost pressure is slightly higher than the market expectation. In March, the pure benzene dropped significantly, and the adipic acid profit level increased slightly. The average profit in the first quarter was 125.48 yuan / ton, up 548.8% on the previous quarter and down 90.6% on the previous quarter.
Pure MDI: the profit of pure MDI mainly depends on the change of its market price, and because of the product characteristics, the profit of the device has been extremely considerable. Although the market price has been declining in recent years, it still maintains relatively considerable profit. Especially since March, the price of pure benzene has been greatly reduced, which has improved the original profit level. The average profit of the device in the first quarter is 5303.07 yuan / ton, down 1 month on month 6.47%, down 54.49% from the first quarter of last year.
DMF: DMF benefits from the long-term downward trend of raw materials. Since the first quarter of 2020, the profit of the device has been fairly good. First, the profit of the same period of last year has been in a long-term under cost state. In the first quarter, the average profit of DMF was 727.87 yuan / ton, an increase of 29.42% on a month on month basis; in the first quarter of last year, an increase of 596.30% on a year-on-year basis. The higher profit of the device also makes DMF maintain a relatively low negative operation despite the increasing delivery pressure.
BDO: since the loss of BDO industry in 2019, the enterprise has been trying to maintain the balance of supply and demand of the industry and the profit level of the enterprise. The profit level of the first quarter is acceptable. In March, the two major raw materials continued to decline, and the profit level of BDO is acceptable. However, the actual start-up changes frequently, and the actual profit level is average. The average profit in the first quarter was 1311.2 yuan / ton, up 59.5% on the previous quarter and 180.6% on the previous quarter.
3. Basic weak polyurethane resin raw material short-term positive pressure greater adipic acid: on the supply and demand side, the short-term demand downstream of adipic acid is difficult to be realized, but with crude oil pure benzene adipic acid entering the bottom range, and the product characteristics of adipic acid storage resistance, the market atmosphere waiting for bottom reading is enhanced. The news that the crude oil market has been pushing forward the production reduction in the near future is increasing. If the production reduction is implemented, the crude oil will rebound with a high probability, which will drive the demand of adipic acid market stock. At that time, the factory will cooperate to push up, so the adipic acid market may rebound in the near future. Pure MDI: the downstream market is hard to be optimistic, the impact of public health events is widespread, and the export market restrictions are still large. Although the resumption of work and production is carried out in an orderly manner, the progress of re sale is relatively slow, the transmission of terminal demand is slow, and the procurement release in polyurethane field is relatively limited. While the downstream of spandex has maintained a high load operation, but the inventory accumulation is relatively high, and there is a certain reduction in the load in the near future; the supply end Due to the pressure of shipment, since the first quarter, the unit load has been running on the low side, and there are still some reduction plans in the future, but relative to the weak demand, the supply is still relatively loose, and the weak market will still dominate the market trend for a long time in the future. DMF: as well as the downstream products, they are also limited by the poor export, which is related to the transmission of domestic demand. The main downstream market is weak and hard to vibrate, and the shipping pressure is gradually increasing. Manufacturers have different degrees of reduction plans. However, in terms of the weak relationship between supply and demand, the reduction at the supply side is difficult to boost the market, only to alleviate the pressure, and the DMF market will be in a weak low position for a long time Specifically, pay attention to the operation of the device at the supply end. BDO: the BDO market in the upstream and downstream games is more important than the market mentality. The social inventory is still in the stage of slow consumption. In the dull summer of 2019, the memory is fresh, and the social inventory has been consumed for nearly three months. Therefore, in April, the air atmosphere is still heavy, and the factory's price keeping mentality is difficult to decline significantly. Zhuo Chuang information official account media cooperation
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