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In March, some real orders of domestic PVC paste resin enterprises were loose, which stimulated shipment, but the atmosphere of transaction was hard to change. On the first day of April, the offer price of some enterprises fell sharply, with individual drop over 500 yuan / ton.
In the first half of March, the offer of domestic PVC paste resin enterprises changed little, and the main offer was stable. With the international public health events becoming more and more serious, PVC gloves as protective materials, the demand has increased sharply, the export orders of glove products enterprises have increased significantly, and some products orders have even been pre sold to June July, but at the same time, the export orders of some downstream products enterprises of large market materials have become weak rapidly, and even the export orders signed in the early stage of some products have been cancelled, resulting in the large market materials falling It is hard to change the fatigue of traveling products, and the demand for large market materials is limited. In the second half of the month, although the main trend of PVC paste resin enterprises' offer was stable, the inventory of some brands' shipment was first reduced, and the actual orders were loose, and individual actual orders dropped as much as 500 yuan / ton. Taking the East China market as an example, by the end of the month, the main delivery price of carbide materials was 7900-9300 yuan / ton, and the high-low price difference was up to 1400 yuan / ton.
However, the decline in price did not lead to a better delivery. The average starting load of paste resin enterprises remained at 70%, and the high-yield and low output led to a significant increase in the stock of large market materials. Glove products enterprises are well stocked in the early stage, and market people still hold a weak attitude towards the future market. In the near future, they consume more inventory or just need to purchase, with more wait-and-see mood and general enthusiasm for entering the market. On the first day of April, the offer of some enterprises fell sharply, and the offer of some enterprises even fell as much as 700 yuan / ton, but it is understood that the market transaction atmosphere has not improved significantly.
We continue to be pessimistic about the price trend of PVC paste resin in April:
The price of raw calcium carbide continues to be weak. In April, the planned maintenance of calcium carbide enterprises is not much. In terms of demand, due to the increase of losses of some PVC powder enterprises, the phenomenon of load reduction or early maintenance may occur in a concentrated way, which will affect the demand for calcium carbide. In the case of PVC market deviation, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide will continue to fall. With the price falling, the calcium carbide plant will lose money one after another, and the construction may also decline.
The profit of PVC paste resin is considerable, and the enterprise starts to maintain a high load. Although the actual price of some PVC paste resin enterprises has dropped significantly in recent years, from the perspective of the profit of PVC paste resin, the falling range has not affected the profit of PVC paste resin enterprises. In March, the average profit of PVC paste resin enterprises in Hebei Province was about 1800 yuan / ton, and that of some PVC paste resin enterprises in Inner Mongolia who were mining calcium carbide was up to 2500 yuan / ton. In April, the price of raw calcium carbide is still expected to be weak, and the cost advantage of PVC by calcium carbide method still exists. Since the middle of March, the international crude oil price has been falling, which has also brought significant support to the cost of PVC paste resin.
At present, PVC paste resin still has a high profit. Even though some PVC paste resin stocks are gradually rising, under the support of high profit, the enterprise has no load reduction or maintenance plan for the time being, so in April, the market supply may continue to be abundant, and the oversupply situation of some brands still exists.
It's hard to change the declining trend of glove material demand. At present, glove product enterprises have better pre-sale orders. Some enterprises pre-sale to June and July, large glove product enterprises basically maintain full load start-up, and some small and medium-sized glove product enterprises that shut down in the early stage also have higher start-up load, which has obvious support for the glove material demand of competitors. However, some of the downstream product enterprises in the market are mainly export-oriented, while the current international public health events are hard to settle, which has a great impact on the export of product enterprises, and the demand for the market materials may still be weak in April.
To sum up, the contradiction between supply and demand of PVC paste resin market is gradually increasing. Although the demand for glove material is good, the supply of glove material is also increasing. It is difficult for the downstream product enterprises of large plate material to start construction, and the situation of supply exceeding demand continues to be obvious. Under the support of high profit, it is difficult for PVC paste resin enterprises to reduce the load or overhaul in advance in a short period of time. In the medium and long term, the price of PVC paste resin in China still has a large falling space.
Wen Jie Wang Wei
Source: Zhuo Chuang information
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