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Preface
In March, Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to reach an agreement on the reduction of crude oil production. Saudi Arabia took the lead in sharply reducing the price of crude oil, causing a hurricane of falling prices in the international chemicals market. According to statistics, from February 24 to March 24, the price index of aromatics products closely linked to the international oil price dropped nearly 30%. The aromatics market is howling, and the breach of contract for canceling the order contract by giving up the earnest money is happening constantly.
On the other hand, with the domestic epidemic under effective control, the foreign epidemic is becoming more and more serious, especially in Europe.
Under the influence of the above-mentioned dual factors, the international financial market has shown a sharp decline. The U.S. stock market has experienced four circuit breakers in just a few trading days, and the market value of Mr. Buffett's stock has also shrunk by 30% in a month.
Under the current severe economic situation, the market of bulk coating raw materials in March is also suffering. The specific price trend is shown in the following five situations:
1、 Aromatic solvent price drops about 20-30%
The price of aromatics products is closely in line with the international oil price, and the purchase price of this kind of products is the biggest drop in the raw materials of coatings, reaching about 20-30%. But with the oil price's repetition, its price also rises and falls frequently.
2、 The price of alcohol, ketone and ether solvents decreased by about 10-20%
Alcohol, ketone and ether solvents also fell about 10-20% with the oil price. For example, in the same industrial chain, the price of pure benzene at the upstream has dropped 30%, that of cyclohexanone at the downstream has dropped about 15%, and that of adipic acid at the downstream has dropped about 10%. It can be seen that the effect of crude oil price reduction is slowly transmitted from the source to the downstream in the petrochemical industry. From the perspective of the price change rate of raw material pure benzene, cyclohexanone and adipic acid still have some room to fall.
The price of epoxy resin drops about 10% - 15%
The price trend of epoxy resin is not closely related to crude oil, which is mainly determined by bisphenol A, epichlorohydrin and market supply and demand. This month, bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin, the raw materials of epoxy resin, continued to decline in February. At present, they are all under 9000 yuan / ton. According to the cost accounting of the raw materials, the price of epoxy resin is still on the high side at present, but the manufacturer intends to slow down the rate of price reduction, but it can't escape the decline.
Titanium dioxide price weak and stable
At the beginning of March, various titanium dioxide manufacturers announced price hikes, but there was no support from actual demand, the buyer did not buy the account, and the price was weak, stable and bearish.
Price rise of individual raw materials
Affected by the epidemic situation, the price of some raw materials rose against the trend, among which, the price of isopropanol rose 30% in one month because it can be used as disinfectant. A certain type of epoxy resin curing agent, affected by the tight supply of raw materials and the rising price, also has a short-term price rise, up by about 5%.
Recent purchase tips
Recently, a lot of friends asked by wechat, at present, can the raw materials of paint be copied? Here's the answer: according to the review of the price trend of various raw materials in March, it's not hard to see that each raw material has its own unique market performance, which cannot be generalized. In the stock market, bear market does not say the bottom, bull market does not say the top, the same applies to the purchase of raw materials for paint. From the overall point of view, the current bulk paint raw material market does not have the conditions to copy the bottom stock, and the timing is not mature. First, there is no obvious sign of recovery of international oil price; second, the epidemic is developing rapidly abroad and will not end in the short term; the global financial market is affected by multiple adverse factors, and there is a greater possibility of further downward trend. The impact of these factors on the real economy is far greater than the crisis in 2008, and will continue for a while, and global demand will be severely suppressed. Besides aromatics, there is still room for price release in bulk solvents, monomers for resin synthesis, epoxy resin and other industries. Therefore, the current purchase of raw materials should continue to pay attention to market changes. Pay attention to the price trend of upstream raw materials for some raw materials with large consumption, and predict the price change trend. Flexible response to market changes, reduce the time of procurement process to the shortest. For the raw materials with proper price, the purchasing volume can be increased appropriately, the inventory can be raised to a high level, or the futures price can be locked, but it is not suitable for large-scale and large-scale hoarding.
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